Data Request Ideation (Phase II)- Disaster World

Topcoder is working with a group of researchers that are competing to understand a series of simulated environments.  There are four of these environments: Urban World, Conflict World, Power World, and Disaster World. Each “world” is defined by a set of data but the full range of possible variables used to develop the simulated worlds isn’t disclosed to working groups in advance.  The research teams have to propose and request useful data and then justify how it would be collected in the target environment.

 This is the beginning of Phase 2 and we are looking for more research requests which can be valuable in a better understating of the Disaster world and building a better model.

In this challenge, we’re asking the Topcoder Community to review the research requests that have been previously submitted by the research team for the Disaster World and to suggest additional variables that should be considered/included in the analysis of these simulated worlds. If you had to model the behavior of agents in this environment, what would you want to know? And crucially, how would you obtain that information?

Prizes:
For this challenge, we’ll be paying a $150 for each relevant variable and associated collection method that the research team wants to include in their research requests.���

 

We’re attaching 5 documents to this challenge. Please find these documents attached.

1. Challenge Description.pdf - This document outlines the world parameters at a high level and the data that has been already provided.
2. Data Description.pdf - This document provides details about each field.
3. C - Disaster World Requests - This is document is a compilation of all the previous research requests and questions.
4. ���Ideation Result of Previous Challenge- These are the Research Requests which were accepted in the previous challenge. Please do not repeat these requests in your solutions. This will not be counted as a valid solution.
5. Disaster World Requests (Phase 1)- This document contains the research requests which were made in Phase 1. Go through the document carefully. Please do not repeat these research requests. This will not be counted as a valid solution.

 

Final Predictive Goals: Given all these data of 6 hurricanes, the Disaster World research team will develop a model to predict the outcomes for a new hurricane.

Short-term Predictions

Global Prediction

1. ���How many people will be casualties (dying or suffering a serious injury) during the new hurricane?
2. How many people will evacuate at least once during the new hurricane?

Local Prediction

1. Which regions will suffer the highest/lowest percentage of casualties?
2. Which regions will have the highest/lowest percentage of evacuations?

 

Individual Predictions

1. Will TargetActor be injured or die during the new hurricane?
2. Will TargetActor evacuate during the new hurricane?

 

Counterfactual Prediction

1. How would your answers to questions 1-3 change if all of the area’s shelters became unusable at the end of the last hurricane in the IDP and remained unusable throughout the Hurricane Input period?

 

    Long-term Predictions

Global Prediction

1. How many people will die?
2. How many people will evacuate at least once?

 

Local Prediction

1. Which regions will suffer the highest/lowest percentage of deaths?
2. Which regions will have the highest/lowest percentage of residents who evacuate at least once?

 

Individual Prediction

1. Will TargetActor survive the following hurricane season?
2. How many times will TargetActor evacuate during the following hurricane season?

 

Counterfactual Prediction

1. ���How would your answers to questions 1-3 change if, after the IDP season ends, but before the following season begins, the government taxes everyone (decreasing everyone’s wealth by 10%), thus enabling a 50% increase its aid impact during the following season?

The following research requests have been approved and the Disaster World team has been provided with data for the following research request and questions:
 

Please go through the approved/already made research requests thoroughly and come up with some exciting and innovative research requests which can help in understating the Disaster world better and help in the prediction challenges which will be launched later after the completion of this challenge.

 

Final Submission Guidelines

Evaluation Criteria:

1. Originality - Your suggestion for a variable isn’t helpful if it has been previously suggested in the Disaster World Request Document or has already been provided.
2. The practicality of Collection Method - In addition to suggesting data, a constraint that our team is under is the ability to collect the data.  Note that in the research requests, the collection methodology is specified. Please include this.
3. Relevance - Fundamentally, we’re trying to model the movement of agents around these regions to determine whether they will evacuate in the face of danger.  The suggested variables should inform this analysis. Please describe how the proposed variable would be used in modeling this environment.

Submission:

1. Variable Name
2. Description
3. Collection Method
4. Analytical Value/Usage

Prizes:
For this challenge, we’ll be paying a $150 for each relevant variable and associated collection method that the research team wants to include in their research requests.